"Labor Force Participation Rate Confuses Issue"
In April's Municipal Strategy Report we discuss how the uncertainty regarding the path of the labor force participation rate, and the question of whether or not it reverses trend as labor conditions continue to improve, complicates the assessment of when the FOMC begins to reverse course on its bond buying program.
"Stock Market Stands up to Sequester"
In March's Municipal Strategy Report we discuss how the stock market has rebuked sequestration and is likely poised to go higher notwithstanding the chaos and confusion sequestration is causing.
"Long Live Bonds, Be They Dead or Alive"
In February's Municipal Strategy Report we discuss how low yields on bonds risk returning the asset class to the days before "the Age of Bonds," when bonds were more of an afterthought than an "offensive weapon" in a diversified portfolio.
In our new quarterly forecast, we draw on the work pioneered by recent Nobel Laureate Christopher Sims to forecast the economy with a proprietary Bayesian Vector Auto Regression model (the Loop BVAR Model).
"Social Security: Fix It, Don't Nix It"
In October's Municipal Strategy Report we stand tall for the Social Security program, a much maligned program that offers a unique investment product unavailable anywhere else.