"Tapering Issue Begs Question: What Happened to 'Discounting'?" In November's Municipal Strategy Report, we discuss the odd logic of the Treasury market: given that the taper is viewed as a lock anyway, and there is little time value of money why doesn't the market just discount the tapering reality now and move yields on 10-year notes to somewhere north of 3.00%? Isn't this the way we were taught that markets work?
In October's Municipal Strategy Report, we discuss the nomination of Janet Yellen to succeed Ben Bernanke as Chairperson of the Federal Reserve. This month's issue also includes a special report on Puerto Rico.
"Thoughts on Fed Tapering - Are We Beginning to Slice the Bologna a Little Thin?"
In September's Municipal Strategy Report, we discuss the relevance of the magnitude of Fed tapering on aggregate demand for bonds.
"Instead of Making the News, the Fed has Become the News"
In August's Municipal Strategy Report, we discuss how the Fed has made itself the news, increasing market uncertainty in the process. A changing of the guard with a new Chairperson, significant changeover early in 2014, and ongoing disagreement on the timing of any reductions in asset purchases will continue to keep markets on edge.
"Forward (Mis) Guidance?"
In July's Municipal Strategy Report, we find ourselves grousing over the Fed's management of their forward guidance. Fed speakers succeeded in talking up rates over 100 basis points only to culminate in a panicked retreat by the Chairman at his speech at the NBER in Boston.
"American Optimism in Remission" In June's Municipal Strategy Report we discuss how the strength and durability of the housing recovery is coming under increasing scrutiny, despite the strength of the data, for reasons more apparently related to ideological predisposition than observable reality.